Portuguese legislative election, 2009

Portuguese legislative election, 2009
2005 ←
 September 27, 2009
 → 2011
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party
 
Leader José Sócrates Manuela Ferreira Leite
Party Socialist Social Democratic
Leader since 29 September 2004 31 May 2008
Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Lisbon[2]
Last election 121 seats, 45.0% 75 seats, 28.8%
Seats won 97 81
Seat change 24 6
Popular vote 2,077,238 1,653,665
Percentage 36.6% 29.1%
Swing 8.4% 0.3%
The first and the second most voted parties in each district
(Azores and Madeira are not shown)
Prime Minister before election

Sócrates
Socialist

 Prime Minister-elect

José Sócrates
Socialist
Portugal

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Legislative elections in Portugal were held on 27 September 2009 to renew all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.[3] The Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates, won the largest number of seats, but didn't repeat the overall majority they gained in 2005.[4]

The Socialist Party of Prime Minister José Sócrates came in first despite losing 9% of the vote and 24 seats.

In these elections there were approximately 9.5 million Portuguese at home and abroad called to determine the 230 seats in the Assembleia da República and 18th constitutional government in Portugal after 1976. The Socialists won the election with a clear lead over the conservative Social Democrats, with big gains for the People's Party and for the Left Bloc.

The election took place during the regular end of the previous four-year legislative period. From 2005 to 2009 ruled by the Socialist Party (PS), led by José Sócrates, with an absolute majority. The opinion polls at the beginning of the official election campaign on 12 September 2009, showed a too close to call race between the Socialists and the conservative Social Democrats,[5] but just days before the election the Socialists increased their lead over the Social Democrats.[6] Competed in this election a total of 13 parties and two coalition list.

Focus of the campaign were the impact of global economic and financial crisis and the construction of new infrastructure projects, including the high-speed rail link Lisbon-Madrid and Lisbon-Porto-Vigo and the new Lisbon airport.

Neither of the two major parties won an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic, so, the future prime minister must form a coalition, or at least rely on other parties to govern. In this case, José Sócrates is in a better position than Manuela Ferreira Leite, since the Portuguese left won by 54.23% of the vote and 128 seats, against 39.54% and 102 deputies to the right.

Voter turnout was one of the lowest in Portuguese election history, as 59.7% of the electorate cast a ballot.

The major parties involved, listed with their leaders:

José Sócrates, leader of the Socialist Party, was nominated Prime Minister.

With 230 seats the results are:[7]

Contents

Opinion polling

See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed are currently represented in parliament. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 2005 and 2009 for reference.

Date(s) Conducted Institute Socialist Social Democratic Green-Communist Left Bloc People's Party Lead
September 27, 2009 Election Results 36.6%
97 seats		 29.1%
81 seats		 7.9%
15 seats		 9.8%
16 seats		 10.4%
21 seats		 7.5%
September 21–24, 2009 Aximage 38.8% 29.1% 8.4% 10.0% 8.6% 9.7%
September 21–23, 2009 INTERCAMPUS 38.0% 29.9% 8.4% 9.4% 7.7% 8.1%
September 18–21, 2009 Marktest 40.0% 31.6% 7.2% 9.2% 8.2% 8.4%
September 17–22, 2009 Universidade Católica 38.0% 30.0% 7.0% 11.0% 8.0% 8.0%
September 14–17, 2009 Aximage 36.1% 29.7% 7.5% 10.0% 7.6% 6.4%
September 13–16, 2009 Eurosondagem 34.9% 31.6% 8.4% 9.6% 8.4% 3.3%
September 12–15, 2009 INTERCAMPUS 32.9% 29.7% 9.2% 12.0% 7.0% 3.2%
September 11–14, 2009 Universidade Católica 38.0% 32.0% 7.0% 12.0% 7.0% 6.0%
September 6–9, 2009 Eurosondagem 33.6% 32.5% 9.4% 9.6% 8.0% 1.1%
September 4–8, 2009 Universidade Católica 37.0% 35.0% 8.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0%
September 4–7, 2009 Marktest 35.3% 32.4% 6.9% 16.2% 5.2% 2.9%
September 1–4, 2009 Aximage 34.5% 28.9% 7.8% 10.4% 8.1% 5.6%
July 2009 Eurosondagem 33.0% 31.1% 9.4% 10.0% 8.5% 1.9%
July 2009 Aximage 30.5% 30.3% 9.5% 13.3% 6.1% 0.2%
July 2009 Marktest 35.5% 34.2% 7.4% 14.3% 4.4% 1.3%
June 2009 Eurosondagem 35.1% 33.0% 9.7% 9.6% 7.4% 2.1%
June 2009 Marktest 34.5% 35.8% 7.7% 11.4% 4.4% 1.3%
May 2009 Marktest 36.3% 28.3% 9.4% 14.7% 7.1% 8.0%
April 2009 Marktest 36.2% 26.4% 11.2% 13.6% 8.3% 9.8%
March 2009 Marktest 36.7% 28.4% 8.9% 12.6% 9.4% 8.3%
February 2009 Marktest 38.2% 28.8% 10.6% 14.0% 4.1% 9.4%
January 2009 Marktest 39.6% 24.9% 11.9% 10.1% 9.7% 14.7%
December 2008 Marktest 39.9% 25.7% 11.0% 11.6% 8.0% 14.2%
November 2008 Marktest 40.1% 26.4% 10.0% 13.1% 6.2% 13.7%
October 2008 Marktest 39.8% 28.7% 10.0% 11.4% 6.4% 11.1%
September 2008 Marktest 36.1% 29.3% 12.6% 10.9% 7.1% 6.8%
July 2008 Marktest 36.7% 32.7% 10.0% 11.4% 5.1% 4.0%
June 2008 Marktest 35.2% 30.8% 11.1% 12.3% 6.7% 4.4%
May 2008 Marktest 33.0% 32.0% 12.8% 11.3% 6.7% 1.0%
April 2008 Marktest 38.0% 31.5% 10.8% 11.5% 4.3% 6.5%
March 2008 Marktest 37.8% 31.9% 12.1% 10.4% 4.0% 5.9%
February 2008 Marktest 36.1% 33.4% 12.8% 8.0% 5.6% 2.7%
January 2008 Marktest 38.0% 34.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0%
November 2007 Marktest 44.0% 32.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 12.0%
October 2007 Marktest 37.0% 36.0% 12.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0%
July 2007 Marktest 44.0% 29.0% 8.0% 9.0% 6.0% 15.0%
June 2007 Marktest 40.0% 29.0% 10.0% 9.0% 7.0% 11.0%
January 2007 Marktest 43.0% 28.0% 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.0%
October 2006 Marktest 42.0% 30.0% 11.0% 10.0% 4.0% 12.0%
September 2006 Marktest 46.0% 30.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% 16.0%
June 2005 Universidade Católica 42.0% 31.0% 11.0% 8.0% 3.0% 11.0%
June 2005 Marktest 46.0% 28.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 18.0%
March 2005 Marktest 52.0% 26.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 26.0%
February 20, 2005 2005 election 45.0%
121 seats		 28.8%
75 seats		 7.5%
14 seats		 6.4%
8 seats		 7.2%
12 seats		 16.2%

Preliminary exit polls

Exit polls from the three major television networks in Portugal, RTP1, SIC and TVI were given precisely at 20:00PM (local time) on 27 September 2009.

Date Conducted Institute Socialist Social Democratic People's Party Left Bloc Green-Communist Lead
September 27, 2009 Exit Poll - RTP1
Universidade Católica		 36.0% - 40.0%
102 - 106 seats		 25.0% - 29.0%
69 - 73 seats		 8.5% - 11.5%
18 - 21 seats		 9.0% - 12.0%
20 - 23 seats		 7.0% - 10.0%
14 - 16 seats		 11.0%
September 27, 2009 Exit Poll - SIC
Eurosondagem		 36.2% - 40.4%
99 - 103 seats		 26.9% - 30.7%
74 - 77 seats		 7.7% - 9.9%
18 - 20 seats		 9.0% - 11.2%
15 - 17 seats		 6.5% - 8.7%
13 - 15 seats		 9.3%
9.7%
September 27, 2009 Exit Poll - TVI
INTERCAMPUS		 36.0% - 40.0%
97 - 111 seats		 26.3% - 30.3%
69 - 80 seats		 8.6% - 11.6%
16 - 22 seats		 8.5% - 11.5%
18 - 22 seats		 6.0% - 9.0%
10 - 15 seats		 9.7%

National summary of votes and seats

e • d Summary of the 27 September 2009 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ±pp swing MPs MPs %/
votes %
2005 2009 ± % ±
Socialist 2,077,238 36.56 8.4 121 97 24 42.17 10.4 1.15
Social Democratic 1,653,665 29.11 0.3 75 81 6 35.22 2.6 1.21
People's Party 592,778 10.43 3.1 12 21 9 9.13 3.9 0.88
Left Bloc 557,306 9.81 3.4 8 16 8 6.96 3.5 0.71
Democratic Unity Coalition 446,279 7.86 0.3 14 15 1 6.52 0.4 0.83
PCTP/MRPP 52,761 0.93 0.1 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
Hope for Portugal Movement 25,949 0.46 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
New Democracy Party 21,876 0.38 0.3 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
Merit and Society Movement 16,924 0.30 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
People's Monarchist Party 15,262 0.27 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Earth Party / Humanist Party[A] 12,405 0.22 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
National Renovator Party 11,503 0.20 0.4 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
Portugal pro life 8,461 0.15 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Labour Party 4,974 0.09 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,632 0.08 0.1 0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0.0
Earth Party[B] 3,265 0.06 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Total valid 5,505,278 96.91 0.2 230 230 0 100.00 0.0 —
Blank ballots 99,086 1.74 0.1
Invalid ballots 76,894 1.35 0.2
Total (turnout 59.68%) 5,681,258 100.00 4.6
A Earth Party / Humanist Party joint electoral list only in continental Portugal.
B Earth Party electoral list only in Madeira and Azores.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Distribution by constituency

e • d Results of the 2009 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDS–PP BE CDU
Azores 39.7 3 35.7 2 10.3 - 7.3 - 2.2 - 5
Aveiro 33.8 6 34.6 7 13.0 2 9.0 1 3.8 - 16
Beja 34.9 2 14.6 - 5.7 - 10.0 - 29.1 1 3
Braga 41.7 9 30.8 6 9.7 2 7.8 1 4.6 1 19
Bragança 33.0 1 40.6 2 12.6 - 6.2 - 2.4 - 3
Castelo Branco 41.0 2 29.8 2 8.4 - 9.1 - 5.1 - 4
Coimbra 38.0 4 30.6 4 8.8 1 10.8 1 5.7 - 10
EvoraÉvora 35.0 1 19.0 1 6.4 - 11.1 - 22.3 1 3
Faro 31.9 3 26.2 3 10.7 1 15.3 1 7.8 - 8
Guarda 36.0 2 35.6 2 11.2 - 7.6 - 3.3 - 4
Leiria 30.1 4 34.9 4 12.6 1 9.5 1 5.1 - 10
Lisbon 36.4 19 25.1 13 11.0 5 10.8 5 9.9 5 47
Madeira 19.4 1 48.1 4 11.1 1 6.2 - 4.2 - 6
Portalegre 38.3 1 23.8 1 8.0 - 10.8 - 12.9 - 2
Porto 41.8 18 29.2 12 9.3 4 9.2 3 5.7 2 39
Santarém 33.7 4 27.0 3 11.2 1 11.8 1 9.2 1 10
Setúbal 34.0 7 16.4 3 9.1 1 14.0 2 20.1 4 17
Viana do Castelo 36.3 3 31.3 2 13.6 1 8.6 - 4.2 - 6
Vila Real 36.1 2 41.1 3 10.1 - 5.5 - 2.9 - 5
Viseu 34.7 4 37.5 4 13.4 1 6.5 - 2.9 - 9
zEurope 43.3 1 23.8 1 4.7 - 4.7 - 4.4 - 2
zRest of the World 22.0 - 54.5 2 3.2 - 2.0 - 1.0 - 2
Total 36.6 97 29.1 81 10.4 21 9.8 16 7.9 15 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

References

  1. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. ^ http://www.mherrera.org/elections.htm
  4. ^ Resultados das Eleições Legislativas 2009, Rádio e Televisão de Portugal, http://tv1.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas2009/index.php, retrieved 2009-09-27 .
  5. ^ PS e PSD separados por dois pontos, Diário de Notícias, http://www.dn.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1358694, retrieved 2009-09-11 .
  6. ^ PS com vantagem de 8 pontos percentuais sobre o PSD, Rádio e Televisão de Portugal, http://tv1.rtp.pt/noticias/?t=PS-com-vantagem-de-8-pontos-percentuais-sobre-o-PSD.rtp&article=281592&visual=3&layout=10&tm=9, retrieved 2009-09-24 .
  7. ^ Official results site, Portuguese Justice Ministry

External links

See also

Parliamentary elections
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* Constituent Assembly